by Ian Shires on 15 May, 2013
Wondering where Ukip won (or almost won – see below) in the local elections on Thursday, 2nd May? Then here’s a handy graphic and breakdown by constituency…
My thanks to Lib Dem Ben Mathis (@binny_uk) for crunching the Ukip numbers, as below. We’ll update the list with any more found…
Boston & Skegness Con ~8000 UKIP ~10,000 Labour ~4000 Independents ~3000
There were no Lib Dem candidates. In one division partly in the seat, Ukip did not stand.
South Holland & The Deepings Con ~8050 UKIP ~7050 Lab ~2550 Ind ~4300
One and a half divisions (The Deepings) had no Ukip candidates, so essentially a dead heat.
Sittingbourne & Sheppey Con ~7300 UKIP ~9600 LD ~1000 Lab ~6200
North Thanet Con ~7100 UKIP ~8700 LD ~1250 Lab ~5000
Folkestone & Hythe Con ~10,100 UKIP ~9200 LD ~2800 Lab ~3700
The Greens also polled over 2000 votes and won Hythe division (traditionally Tory) Where these votes would go in a general is an open question.
Worthing East & Shoreham Con 7136 UKIP 7386 LD 2276 Lab 3130
Bognor Regis & Littlehampton Con 6111 UKIP 7766 LD 4340 Lab 2457
ESSEX Castle Point Con 6404 UKIP 6466 LD 316 Lab 2574 Independents 2962
Most Canvey Island Independent voters are white working-class small-c conservatives, who mostly vote Tory in general elections but would probably back Ukip if they were challenging for the seat. Virtually a dead heat between the Conservatives and Ukip on May 2nd.
Rayleigh & Wickford Con 7936 UKIP 6719 LD 2141 Lab 2169
Another seat closer than it looks. Ukip’s vote in Rayleigh North was hit by an English Democrat standing and polling 660. In Rochford West a Green candidate won with 1615 votes. As in Hythe, these are unlikely to transfer to a Green parliamentary candidate.
The neighbouring seat of Basildon South & East Thurrock could be interesting, but as most of it is within Thurrock unitary authority, only two wards were contested this time round.
Con – 4998 UKIP – 6783 Lib Dem – 4454 Labour – 2573
Maybe evidence of the “HS2 Effect”?
Finally in GLOUCESTERSHIRE…
Forest of Dean Con 7187 UKIP 6247 LD 1742 Lab 5699 Green 970 Independents 3055
With the Independents strong and one division where Ukip didn’t stand, that could go any one of three ways!
All of which chimes with Lord Ashcroft’s polling from last December, as analysed by Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report here (and still relevant 6 months’ later):
… UKIP support is not particularly connected with Europe, it is an anti-immigration vote and protest vote against some aspects of modern Britain, a general reactionary vote in support of taking Britain back to a status quo ante.
Or, as I characterised Ukip’s USP here: ‘stop-the-world-I-want-to-get-off-pull-up-the-drawbridge-nothing-against-them-personally-but-we’re-full-and-another-thing-health-and-safety-some-of-my-best-friends-are–all-the-parties-are-the-same-I’d-emigrate-if-I-could’.
And as for the future, here’s Anthony Wells again:
The fact that UKIP support is not primarily driven by attitudes to Europe suggests that a referendum on EU membership is not the sort of elixir that some people seem to consider it to be. That’s not to say it wouldn’t shift votes, or appeal to people with the sort of values that lead them to support UKIP… just don’t expect it to magically lure all those votes back to the Conservatives overnight. More pertinent is the degree to which UKIP sympathisers who prefer Cameron and the Conservatives to Miliband and Labour will end up returning to the Conservatives once an actual election arrives, and the degree to which UKIP has replaced the Liberal Democrats as a vehicle for mid-term protest votes from people unhappy with both the government and the opposition. Right now there is no good way of measuring that.